# LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 13% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 17:40:59 GMT. 24h change -23.9pp, 24h volume $433.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T17:40:59.446Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **13¢** (13%) |
| Δ 1h | -25.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -23.9pp |
| Δ 1w | -28.4pp |
| 24h volume | $433.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $433.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $17.6K |
| Spread | 5.90pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Karmine Corp and G2 Esports in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 24 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win Game 1 against G2 Esports.
> 
> This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 1 against Karmine Corp.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x52ec…a6f3` — 98,215.017 shares
- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 41,114.82 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 36,864.196 shares
- `0xac75…1319` — 30,000 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 16,300 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0d2d…7ff5` — 51,009.413 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 24,999.956 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 20,621.808 shares
- `0xf201…527e` — 20,060.707 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 14,999.98 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T16:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T15:57:04.000Z |
| Range | 36¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +58.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner — 13% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T17:40:59.446Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*