# LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 18:48:43 GMT. 24h change -38.0pp, 24h volume $439.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game3
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game3
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T18:48:43.909Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -36.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -38.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -42.0pp |
| 24h volume | $439.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $439.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $117.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Karmine Corp and G2 Esports in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 24 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win Game 3 against G2 Esports.
> 
> This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 3 against Karmine Corp.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. 
> 
> If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 38.0pp in 24h with 3.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x40ea…832f` — 43,152.393 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 16,250 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 15,767.399 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 13,960.253 shares
- `0x6df6…8458` — 9,776.929 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3833…33d1` — 25,000 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 19,637.914 shares
- `0x52ec…a6f3` — 18,653.091 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 15,270 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 14,465.32 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T18:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T17:47:03.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 45¢ |
| Net change | -42.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game3` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T18:48:43.909Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-kc-g2-2026-05-24-game3.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*