# LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 00:42:06 GMT. 24h change -47.4pp, 24h volume $325.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-ly-tl2-2026-05-24-game4
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-ly-tl2-2026-05-24-game4
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T00:42:06.005Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -47.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $325.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $325.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $507.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between LYON and Team Liquid in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 24 at 4:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win Game 4 against Team Liquid.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 4 against LYON.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. 
> 
> If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved down 47.4pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe405…c67e` — 30,425.449 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 28,499.981 shares
- `0xfbf3…b218` — 20,500 shares
- `0xe361…ae44` — 7,908.564 shares
- `0x3e53…bf9a` — 7,350 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6049…f14f` — 52,246.27 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 24,999.631 shares
- `0x82dc…5700` — 12,559.632 shares
- `0xb6ce…7a7d` — 12,549.336 shares
- `0x204e…8d08` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 154 |
| Window start | 2026-05-18T16:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T00:42:03.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 62¢ |
| Net change | -54.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-ly-tl2-2026-05-24-game4` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T00:42:06.005Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-ly-tl2-2026-05-24-game4.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*