# LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 21:07:55 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $216.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-navi-gal-2026-05-15-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-navi-gal-2026-05-15-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T21:07:55.638Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $216.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $216.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $157.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Natus Vincere and Galions in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 11:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Galions.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Galions" if Galions win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x996a…e3cc` — 83,936.21 shares
- `0x4916…5442` — 23,870.122 shares
- `0x3186…e9ca` — 10,588.049 shares
- `0xe405…c67e` — 7,427.43 shares
- `0x842a…7422` — 2,092.1 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xec92…6b59` — 38,979.853 shares
- `0x5809…9868` — 7,434.909 shares
- `0x14ab…2f5a` — 6,000 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 5,836.286 shares
- `0xad72…4f5e` — 5,139.957 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 24 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T22:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T21:07:04.000Z |
| Range | 63¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +35.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-navi-gal-2026-05-15-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T21:07:55.638Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-navi-gal-2026-05-15-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*