# Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 54% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 14:26:40 GMT. 24h change -6.5pp, 24h volume $12.20.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-ns-hle1-2026-05-25-game-handicap-home-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-ns-hle1-2026-05-25-game-handicap-home-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T14:26:40.812Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **54¢** (54%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -6.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $12.20 |
| Lifetime volume | $85.45 |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $2.4K |
| Spread | 13.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Nongshim Red Force and Hanwha Life Esports in the Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 25 at 6:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports wins 2 or more games than Nongshim Red Force in this match.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force". 
> 
> Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 55%): Expires in 2h. Spread is extremely wide.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfbf3…b218` — 145,752.77 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 25,000 shares
- `0x33ab…9523` — 17,077.46 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 12,518 shares
- `0x3af1…d739` — 12,241.535 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1136…0c2e` — 82,847.48 shares
- `0x8fbb…9a17` — 77,800.055 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 40,902.435 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 18,500 shares
- `0x751b…73fd` — 8,301.504 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 108 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T14:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T00:46:05.000Z |
| Range | 46¢ → 69¢ |
| Net change | +3.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-ns-hle1-2026-05-25-game-handicap-home-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) — 54% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T14:26:40.812Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-ns-hle1-2026-05-25-game-handicap-home-1pt5.
```

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