# LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 20:33:28 GMT. 24h change -56.5pp, 24h volume $222.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-shft-gal-2026-05-14-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-shft-gal-2026-05-14-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T20:33:28.744Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -56.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -53.4pp |
| 24h volume | $222.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $222.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $87.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 2 match between Shifters and Galions in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 2:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Shifters" if Shifters win Game 1 against Galions.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Galions" if Galions win Game 1 against Shifters.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8430…3961` — 24,392.233 shares
- `0x9b49…04a8` — 15,139.88 shares
- `0x5809…9868` — 4,699.985 shares
- `0x82bf…de71` — 2,405.142 shares
- `0xb4d2…ce99` — 2,293.809 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5e04…08a2` — 23,453 shares
- `0xa16a…33a1` — 12,350.75 shares
- `0x4d51…4946` — 10,000 shares
- `0x6791…b1fe` — 10,000 shares
- `0x78db…a291` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T21:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T20:33:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 67¢ |
| Net change | -53.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-shft-gal-2026-05-14-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 1 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T20:33:28.744Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-shft-gal-2026-05-14-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*