# Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 23:09:21 GMT. 24h change -58.5pp, 24h volume $181.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-shft-mkoi-2026-05-04-game-handicap-home-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-shft-mkoi-2026-05-04-game-handicap-home-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T23:09:21.446Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -58.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -52.4pp |
| 24h volume | $181.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $181.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $360.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between Shifters and Movistar KOI in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 4 at 1:15PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI wins 2 or more games than Shifters in this match.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Shifters". 
> 
> Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x40ea…832f` — 39,955.49 shares
- `0xc41d…74fd` — 29,515 shares
- `0xf070…ac55` — 22,222 shares
- `0xd055…28d0` — 5,140.698 shares
- `0x54c2…23ad` — 4,500 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9770…0ff5` — 27,500 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 25,000 shares
- `0xea2b…1fc6` — 20,000 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 19,232.29 shares
- `0xa7df…5eee` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T00:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T23:08:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 64¢ |
| Net change | -52.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-shft-mkoi-2026-05-04-game-handicap-home-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5) — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T23:09:21.446Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-shft-mkoi-2026-05-04-game-handicap-home-1pt5.
```

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