# Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 09:55:20 GMT. 24h change +34.9pp, 24h volume $189.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-t1-ns-2026-05-13-game-handicap-away-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-t1-ns-2026-05-13-game-handicap-away-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T09:55:20.056Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +15.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +34.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $189.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $194.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $247.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between T1 and Nongshim Red Force in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 13 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 wins 2 or more games than Nongshim Red Force in this match.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force". 
> 
> Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 80%): Probability moved up 34.9pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 4h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1341…0853` — 37,387.563 shares
- `0x56c9…0d9e` — 19,431.79 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 17,999.983 shares
- `0x777d…5143` — 16,576.71 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 11,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8fbb…9a17` — 23,356.856 shares
- `0x183f…85e3` — 21,892.02 shares
- `0xa7df…5eee` — 19,999.955 shares
- `0x988d…9899` — 13,713.212 shares
- `0x8e8c…65dd` — 12,170.634 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 66 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T17:00:29.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T09:55:08.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-t1-ns-2026-05-13-game-handicap-away-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T09:55:20.056Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-t1-ns-2026-05-13-game-handicap-away-1pt5.
```

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