# LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 13:34:06 GMT. 24h change -34.4pp, 24h volume $493.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-tes-blg-2026-05-15-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-tes-blg-2026-05-15-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T13:34:06.903Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -25.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -34.4pp |
| Δ 1w | -44.0pp |
| 24h volume | $493.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $493.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $471.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 15 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 2 against Bilibili Gaming.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win Game 2 against Top Esports.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. 
> 
> If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 83%): Probability moved down 34.4pp in 24h with 1.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3af1…d739` — 49,380.948 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 26,665.881 shares
- `0x52ec…a6f3` — 22,221.986 shares
- `0x6130…a7a6` — 20,890.563 shares
- `0xad72…4f5e` — 12,214.971 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa16a…33a1` — 50,000 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 24,840.89 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 19,934.599 shares
- `0xafd4…7e61` — 18,281.484 shares
- `0x1887…f75d` — 16,710.778 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T14:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T13:33:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 44¢ |
| Net change | -44.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-tes-blg-2026-05-15-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T13:34:06.903Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-tes-blg-2026-05-15-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*