# LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 01:59:44 GMT. 24h change +21.9pp, 24h volume $125.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-tl2-dsg-2026-05-02-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-tl2-dsg-2026-05-02-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T01:59:44.882Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +21.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $125.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $125.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $394.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between Team Liquid and Disguised in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 2 at 7:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against Disguised.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win Game 1 against Team Liquid.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9ad6…4251` — 9,093 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 8,500 shares
- `0xafd4…7e61` — 7,708.845 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 6,356.58 shares
- `0x58f8…dc70` — 4,745.225 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x01e6…e7e0` — 13,226.413 shares
- `0x84ad…bfb7` — 10,533.032 shares
- `0x7d4d…8525` — 10,452.032 shares
- `0xe308…25cd` — 4,341.379 shares
- `0x1f03…b1be` — 3,999.987 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 120 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T02:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T01:58:04.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-tl2-dsg-2026-05-02-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T01:59:44.882Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-tl2-dsg-2026-05-02-game1.
```

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