# LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 10:47:05 GMT. 24h change +64.5pp, 24h volume $306.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-tt-edg-2026-05-16-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-tt-edg-2026-05-16-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T10:47:05.699Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +64.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +50.0pp |
| 24h volume | $306.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $307.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $313.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 16 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win Game 1 against EDward Gaming.
> 
> This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win Game 1 against ThunderTalk Gaming.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 82%): Probability moved up 64.5pp in 24h with 1.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 27,570.553 shares
- `0xafd4…7e61` — 22,556.824 shares
- `0x5e04…08a2` — 14,974.38 shares
- `0x3a09…f9f7` — 12,071 shares
- `0x20ba…6c2a` — 7,844.627 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1341…0853` — 57,772.449 shares
- `0x3af1…d739` — 21,309.193 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 9,862.09 shares
- `0x3833…33d1` — 7,000 shares
- `0x76cf…9452` — 5,579.17 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T11:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T10:46:10.000Z |
| Range | 36¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +51.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-tt-edg-2026-05-16-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T10:47:05.699Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-tt-edg-2026-05-16-game1.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*