# LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 12:52:51 GMT. 24h change +56.0pp, 24h volume $302.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-up-omg-2026-05-15-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-up-omg-2026-05-15-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T12:52:51.199Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +56.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +54.9pp |
| 24h volume | $302.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $302.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $305.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between Ultra Prime and Oh My God in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 15 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Ultra Prime" if Ultra Prime win Game 2 against Oh My God.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Oh My God" if Oh My God win Game 2 against Ultra Prime.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. 
> 
> If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x52ec…a6f3` — 63,783.244 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 13,749.995 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 12,857.4 shares
- `0xe405…c67e` — 9,407.35 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 9,024.81 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2e18…1c85` — 44,999.992 shares
- `0x9b49…04a8` — 9,347.758 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 9,000 shares
- `0x6130…a7a6` — 8,207.947 shares
- `0x8c0b…7aa5` — 7,620.49 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T13:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T12:52:08.000Z |
| Range | 43¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +55.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-up-omg-2026-05-15-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T12:52:51.199Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-up-omg-2026-05-15-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*