# LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 12:52:04 GMT. 24h change +56.0pp, 24h volume $291.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-up-omg-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-up-omg-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T12:52:04.997Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +56.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +56.0pp |
| 24h volume | $291.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $291.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $347.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between Ultra Prime and Oh My God in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 15 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Ultra Prime" if Ultra Prime win the match against Oh My God.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Oh My God" if Oh My God win the match against Ultra Prime.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. 
> 
> If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
> 
> In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1887…f75d` — 66,666 shares
- `0x76cf…9452` — 43,663.46 shares
- `0x9cd1…285d` — 19,999.991 shares
- `0xd2f3…37f9` — 18,739.88 shares
- `0x183f…85e3` — 9,656.43 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1341…0853` — 75,069.008 shares
- `0x2e18…1c85` — 50,000.027 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 13,408.77 shares
- `0xa2e4…bf9d` — 6,999.99 shares
- `0x0a63…fc03` — 5,458.23 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T13:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T12:51:07.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +56.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-up-omg-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T12:52:04.997Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-up-omg-2026-05-15.
```

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