# LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 13:05:44 GMT. 24h change +61.0pp, 24h volume $580.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-wb-jdg-2026-05-14-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-wb-jdg-2026-05-14-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T13:05:44.381Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +65.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +61.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $580.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $580.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $236.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win Game 1 against JD Gaming.
> 
> This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win Game 1 against Weibo Gaming.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 61.0pp in 24h with 2.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe557…9597` — 60,100 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 56,973.083 shares
- `0xf61f…3938` — 30,000 shares
- `0x3a09…f9f7` — 19,239 shares
- `0xafd4…7e61` — 15,283.182 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3af1…d739` — 52,945.802 shares
- `0x4b8f…de20` — 19,981.891 shares
- `0xb10b…0b04` — 14,956.133 shares
- `0x52ec…a6f3` — 13,842.65 shares
- `0x55d9…832c` — 8,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 160 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T13:04:05.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-wb-jdg-2026-05-14-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T13:05:44.381Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-wb-jdg-2026-05-14-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*