# LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 33% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 14:45:47 GMT. 24h change +5.5pp, 24h volume $472.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/lol-we-nip-2026-05-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/lol-we-nip-2026-05-16
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T14:45:47.693Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **33¢** (33%) |
| Δ 1h | +21.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -17.1pp |
| 24h volume | $472.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $480.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://gol.gg/esports/home

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the LoL match between Team WE and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 16 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Team WE.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. 
> 
> If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
> 
> In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 79%): Probability moved up 5.5pp in 24h with 9.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 4h.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 14:41 UTC | `Overjoyed-Shareholder` | BUY | TEAM WE | $18.47 |
| May 16, 14:41 UTC | `Unnatural-Badge` | BUY | TEAM WE | $2.10 |
| May 16, 14:41 UTC | `Hidden-Melon` | BUY | NINJAS IN PYJAMAS | $27.01 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1887…f75d` — 56,113.574 shares
- `0x76cf…9452` — 26,449.076 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 25,446 shares
- `0x4337…8882` — 18,887.953 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 12,384.925 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1136…0c2e` — 39,999.913 shares
- `0x38ac…f9b7` — 28,687.621 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 27,536.42 shares
- `0x4e8d…febf` — 15,701.271 shares
- `0x9770…0ff5` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T15:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T14:44:04.000Z |
| Range | 13¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -15.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=lol-we-nip-2026-05-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — 33% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T14:45:47.693Z from https://orrery.me/markets/lol-we-nip-2026-05-16.
```

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