# MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 68% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 03:32:02 GMT. 24h change -8.1pp, 24h volume $187.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T03:32:02.223Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **68¢** (68%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -8.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -4.9pp |
| 24h volume | $187.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.9M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $72.7K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 88%): Probability moved down 8.1pp in 24h with 2.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdc26…7e7d` — 90,055.505 shares
- `0x073a…91e7` — 60,388.816 shares
- `0xb323…27df` — 54,851.498 shares
- `0x4799…f273` — 41,319.139 shares
- `0x2c25…a86f` — 37,216.65 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfbfd…c32d` — 40,426.112 shares
- `0xb48e…a144` — 39,655.653 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 33,412.09 shares
- `0x4910…c095` — 32,333.979 shares
- `0x3283…1da9` — 30,976.453 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T03:31:04.000Z |
| Range | 56¢ → 89¢ |
| Net change | -4.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? — 68% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T03:32:02.223Z from https://orrery.me/markets/microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-june-30-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*