# Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 10% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:04:28 GMT. 24h change -31.5pp, 24h volume $610.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-ari-chc-2026-05-02
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-ari-chc-2026-05-02
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:04:28.675Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **10¢** (10%) |
| Δ 1h | -24.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -31.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $610.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $610.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $147.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for May 2 at 2:20PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 31.5pp in 24h with 4.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 149,909.992 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 85,272.772 shares
- `0x99a7…fc82` — 77,777 shares
- `0x1de3…a1fa` — 48,750.006 shares
- `0xdd92…6b2a` — 30,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x45c9…414b` — 280,253.075 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 101,980.419 shares
- `0xd3df…82fa` — 16,940.547 shares
- `0x9a8c…ba13` — 12,090.68 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 12,027.212 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 151 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T14:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T20:35:07.000Z |
| Range | 8¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -43.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-ari-chc-2026-05-02` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs — 10% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:04:28.675Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-ari-chc-2026-05-02.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*