# Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 35% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 01:36:47 GMT. 24h change -22.0pp, 24h volume $316.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-chc-cws-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-chc-cws-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T01:36:47.881Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **35¢** (35%) |
| Δ 1h | -42.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -22.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $316.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $316.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $30.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for May 15 at 7:40PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 22.0pp in 24h with 10.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x16bb…8492` — 40,913.77 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 19,999.959 shares
- `0xabb8…bba3` — 18,518.52 shares
- `0x2dc1…b33c` — 16,756.36 shares
- `0x9703…69c2` — 13,559.108 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 34,735.586 shares
- `0xefdd…017f` — 33,763.609 shares
- `0x38f0…2768` — 23,255.814 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 17,010 shares
- `0xc807…c12b` — 11,776.09 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T15:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T01:35:19.000Z |
| Range | 34¢ → 92¢ |
| Net change | -17.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-chc-cws-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox — 35% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T01:36:47.881Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-chc-cws-2026-05-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*