# Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 28% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 01:29:14 GMT. 24h change -19.5pp, 24h volume $262.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-cin-chc-2026-05-04-total-11pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-cin-chc-2026-05-04-total-11pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T01:29:14.655Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **28¢** (28%) |
| Δ 1h | -20.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -19.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $262.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $262.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $14.7K |
| Spread | 4.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for May 4 at 7:40 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs combine to score 12 or more runs in this game.
> 
> If the combined total is less than 12, this market will resolve to "Under".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 149,186.131 shares
- `0x842a…7422` — 28,837.987 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 19,041.02 shares
- `0x7b47…d615` — 6,000 shares
- `0x9c76…c926` — 4,885.616 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe3aa…4830` — 115,931.655 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 102,240.74 shares
- `0x9870…b9d3` — 2,941.176 shares
- `0x7760…21f0` — 2,786.989 shares
- `0x78b0…9f1a` — 2,274.51 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 31 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T20:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T01:29:05.000Z |
| Range | 25¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -25.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-cin-chc-2026-05-04-total-11pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 — 28% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T01:29:14.655Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-cin-chc-2026-05-04-total-11pt5.
```

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