# Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 34% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 21:40:20 GMT. 24h change -9.0pp, 24h volume $468.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-cws-sea-2026-05-20
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-cws-sea-2026-05-20
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T21:40:20.099Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **34¢** (34%) |
| Δ 1h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -9.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $468.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $468.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $39.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for May 20 at 4:10PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 91%): Probability moved down 9.0pp in 24h with 12.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 21:38 UTC | `Defiant-Personal` | SELL | SEATTLE MARINERS | $3.53 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5234…4c4f` — 65,710.496 shares
- `0x7a88…41cc` — 64,000 shares
- `0x16bb…8492` — 50,487.1 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 33,062.861 shares
- `0x5375…aeea` — 25,511.515 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1136…0c2e` — 131,840.581 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 54,317.73 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 53,546.262 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 24,133.102 shares
- `0x26b4…b8a9` — 21,419.724 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 152 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T14:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T21:20:03.000Z |
| Range | 23¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -20.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-cws-sea-2026-05-20` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners — 34% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T21:40:20.099Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-cws-sea-2026-05-20.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*