# Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 00:34:28 GMT. 24h change -45.0pp, 24h volume $258.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-mia-tb-2026-05-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-mia-tb-2026-05-15
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T00:34:28.233Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | -28.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -45.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $258.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $262.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $21.3K |
| Spread | 0.90pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for May 15 at 7:10PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xefdd…017f` — 40,999.758 shares
- `0x5375…aeea` — 14,774 shares
- `0xe7a2…ae70` — 13,475.775 shares
- `0x16bb…8492` — 12,249.17 shares
- `0xa2c6…d14d` — 8,251 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3625…1187` — 22,898.799 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 18,682.656 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 13,610.57 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 11,646.09 shares
- `0x9703…69c2` — 9,422.561 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T14:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T00:34:08.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 60¢ |
| Net change | -46.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-mia-tb-2026-05-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T00:34:28.233Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-mia-tb-2026-05-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*