# New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 70% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 21:39:52 GMT. 24h change +17.5pp, 24h volume $752.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-nym-wsh-2026-05-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-nym-wsh-2026-05-21
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T21:39:52.527Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **70¢** (70%) |
| Δ 1h | +27.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +17.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $752.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $753.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $62.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, scheduled for May 21 at 4:05PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 17.5pp in 24h with 12.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 21:34 UTC | `Secondary-Broadcast` | BUY | NEW YORK METS | $13.60 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5291…d4b6` — 115,081.282 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 99,999.816 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 63,495.907 shares
- `0xef1b…8697` — 26,485.365 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 20,977.261 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 162,528.945 shares
- `0x5375…aeea` — 38,181 shares
- `0x7a88…41cc` — 32,221.892 shares
- `0x26b4…b8a9` — 25,904.12 shares
- `0xcd65…ee96` — 19,517.654 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 152 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T15:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T21:37:05.000Z |
| Range | 31¢ → 76¢ |
| Net change | +22.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-nym-wsh-2026-05-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals — 70% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T21:39:52.527Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-nym-wsh-2026-05-21.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*