# New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 26% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 18:09:57 GMT. 24h change -31.0pp, 24h volume $1.2M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-nyy-bal-2026-05-13
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-nyy-bal-2026-05-13
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T18:09:57.662Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **26¢** (26%) |
| Δ 1h | -34.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -31.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.2M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $99.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for May 13 at 6:35PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 31.0pp in 24h with 12.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4m ago | `0x5375…aeea` | SELL | NEW YORK YANKEES | $234.25 |
| 4m ago | `Idle-Pint` | BUY | NEW YORK YANKEES | $1.00 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x531b…6022` — 439,068.69 shares
- `0x7754…9709` — 91,105.92 shares
- `0x2643…39ae` — 82,550 shares
- `0xde9f…b8f7` — 78,999.246 shares
- `0x16bb…8492` — 55,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 545,806.173 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 140,907.518 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 74,827.376 shares
- `0x5c3a…020b` — 49,999.993 shares
- `0x5234…4c4f` — 37,968.447 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 150 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T14:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T18:09:05.000Z |
| Range | 19¢ → 77¢ |
| Net change | -32.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-nyy-bal-2026-05-13` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles — 26% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T18:09:57.662Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-nyy-bal-2026-05-13.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*