# Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 99% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 23:00:37 GMT. 24h change +54.4pp, 24h volume $832.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-oak-bal-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-oak-bal-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T23:00:37.910Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **99¢** (99%) |
| Δ 1h | +4.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +54.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $832.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $832.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $51.9K |
| Spread | 0.60pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for May 9 at 4:05PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 54.4pp in 24h with 16.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 419,817.768 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 25,000 shares
- `0x6db5…e279` — 19,760.576 shares
- `0x5375…aeea` — 18,939.338 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 15,238.542 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 285,567.329 shares
- `0xa8e0…ad50` — 120,000 shares
- `0x5234…4c4f` — 58,420.654 shares
- `0x4f29…7a7e` — 27,255.894 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 26,943.918 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 130 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T14:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T22:59:06.000Z |
| Range | 43¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-oak-bal-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles — 99% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T23:00:37.910Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-oak-bal-2026-05-09.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*