# Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 20:22:37 GMT. 24h change +44.5pp, 24h volume $294.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-phi-mia-2026-05-03
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-phi-mia-2026-05-03
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T20:22:37.695Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +44.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $294.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $298.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $454.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 3 at 1:40PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 78%): Probability moved up 44.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x99a7…fc82` — 78,954.507 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 44,999.774 shares
- `0x16bb…8492` — 35,000 shares
- `0xc96a…396a` — 13,690.87 shares
- `0xd3df…82fa` — 9,872.149 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 153,999.886 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 16,623.713 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 11,466.051 shares
- `0x1df2…89a0` — 8,827.569 shares
- `0x3625…1187` — 6,839.35 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 151 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T14:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T20:21:05.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-phi-mia-2026-05-03` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T20:22:37.695Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-phi-mia-2026-05-03.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*