# Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 21% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 00:45:44 GMT. 24h change -21.0pp, 24h volume $929.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-pit-tor-2026-05-22
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-pit-tor-2026-05-22
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T00:45:44.326Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **21¢** (21%) |
| Δ 1h | -18.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -21.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $929.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $929.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $251.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 29, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for May 22 at 7:07PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 21.0pp in 24h with 3.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 00:42 UTC | `Shadowy-Songbird` | SELL | TORONTO BLUE JAYS | $10.79 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 600,177.126 shares
- `0xabb8…bba3` — 44,194.16 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 17,839.024 shares
- `0x16bb…8492` — 15,000 shares
- `0xa1e4…4f8a` — 12,332.49 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 331,091.549 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 94,554.762 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 60,000 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 46,499.975 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 44,444 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T15:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T00:26:03.000Z |
| Range | 19¢ → 60¢ |
| Net change | -31.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-pit-tor-2026-05-22` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays — 21% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T00:45:44.326Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-pit-tor-2026-05-22.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*