# San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 56% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 20:29:46 GMT. 24h change +2.5pp, 24h volume $183.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-sd-sf-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-sd-sf-2026-05-04
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T20:29:46.010Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **56¢** (56%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $183.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $183.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $148.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for May 4 at 9:45PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf152…64aa` — 59,999.558 shares
- `0x3625…1187` — 35,087.719 shares
- `0xbd14…d62a` — 33,684.072 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 12,611 shares
- `0xa697…59d5` — 2,833.151 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 26,722.66 shares
- `0x38f0…2768` — 21,249.475 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 20,187.338 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 16,607.354 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 146 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T19:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T20:28:06.000Z |
| Range | 41¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | +5.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-sd-sf-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants — 56% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T20:29:46.010Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-sd-sf-2026-05-04.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*