# Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 94% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 01:57:16 GMT. 24h change +49.3pp, 24h volume $879.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-tb-tor-2026-05-11
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tb-tor-2026-05-11
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T01:57:16.345Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **94¢** (94%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.8pp |
| Δ 24h | +49.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $879.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $881.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $64.2K |
| Spread | 1.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for May 11 at 7:07PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 49.3pp in 24h with 13.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4m ago | `Delicious-Boom` | BUY | TAMPA BAY RAYS | $2.44 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 291,964.628 shares
- `0x38f0…2768` — 23,478.261 shares
- `0xe8d7…1252` — 23,474.291 shares
- `0xabb8…bba3` — 19,999.956 shares
- `0x50da…2202` — 13,886.097 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 83,461.051 shares
- `0xf152…64aa` — 59,791.999 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 40,803.026 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 38,325.321 shares
- `0xe7e1…ec43` — 30,450 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 157 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T14:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T01:37:04.000Z |
| Range | 39¢ → 95¢ |
| Net change | +44.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-tb-tor-2026-05-11` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays — 94% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T01:57:16.345Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-tb-tor-2026-05-11.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*