# Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:04:27 GMT. 24h change +45.0pp, 24h volume $624.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-tor-min-2026-05-02
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tor-min-2026-05-02
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:04:27.979Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +75.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +45.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $624.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $624.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $266.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlb.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for May 2 at 2:10PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game.
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 45.0pp in 24h with 2.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf152…64aa` — 44,999.873 shares
- `0x2ada…2f28` — 44,105.36 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 38,087.09 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 18,241.338 shares
- `0xd1ed…d7cb` — 16,784.63 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa8e0…ad50` — 76,137.096 shares
- `0xabb8…bba3` — 73,947.949 shares
- `0xc0ff…9953` — 34,703.677 shares
- `0x0e64…336d` — 29,999.829 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 15,904 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 152 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T14:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:03:05.000Z |
| Range | 35¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +48.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mlb-tor-min-2026-05-02` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:04:27.979Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mlb-tor-min-2026-05-02.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*