# Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 04:26:59 GMT. 24h change +59.0pp, 24h volume $189.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mls-por-skc-2026-05-09-spread-home-1pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mls-por-skc-2026-05-09-spread-home-1pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T04:26:59.910Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.6pp |
| Δ 24h | +59.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +58.5pp |
| 24h volume | $189.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $189.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $17.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for May 9 at 10:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Portland Timbers" if Portland Timbers win the game by 2 or more goals.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sporting Kansas City".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdb22…6478` — 154,574.506 shares
- `0xf5f9…87b0` — 18,023.725 shares
- `0xd1ed…d7cb` — 300 shares
- `0xb4d2…ce99` — 257.236 shares
- `0x85d8…3cbe` — 232.558 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 29,053.95 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 25,307.875 shares
- `0x86fb…03d4` — 21,786.509 shares
- `0xd696…8a49` — 16,567.66 shares
- `0xb2fe…7558` — 7,999.98 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T04:26:05.000Z |
| Range | 40¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +58.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mls-por-skc-2026-05-09-spread-home-1pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T04:26:59.910Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mls-por-skc-2026-05-09-spread-home-1pt5.
```

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