#  MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 04:44:28 GMT. 24h change -38.5pp, 24h volume $351.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mvp-fight-night-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mvp-fight-night-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T04:44:28.047Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -8.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -38.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -35.9pp |
| 24h volume | $351.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $417.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $171.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Diaz" if Nate Diaz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mike Perry at Most Valuable Promotions 1: Rousey vs. Carano, scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Perry" if Mike Perry is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.mostvaluablepromotions.com/. 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 38.5pp in 24h with 2.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc58d…9373` — 86,165.615 shares
- `0xa49b…4c40` — 50,055.254 shares
- `0x1b62…db9c` — 50,000 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 12,975.458 shares
- `0xe911…3d4e` — 7,637.998 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdbad…9c95` — 96,017.629 shares
- `0xa080…234f` — 59,999.719 shares
- `0x6049…f14f` — 35,637.95 shares
- `0xe524…d34f` — 14,999.785 shares
- `0xefdd…017f` — 11,678.86 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T05:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T04:31:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 45¢ |
| Net change | -35.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mvp-fight-night-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. " MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T04:44:28.047Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mvp-fight-night-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*