#  MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 04:46:37 GMT. 24h change +18.3pp, 24h volume $273.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/mvp-fight-night-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-carano
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/mvp-fight-night-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-carano
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T04:46:37.656Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +18.3pp |
| Δ 24h | +18.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +44.0pp |
| 24h volume | $273.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $290.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $152.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 17, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Rousey" if Ronda Rousey is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gina Carano at Most Valuable Promotions 1: Rousey vs. Carano, scheduled for May 16 2026.
> 
> It will resolve to "Carano" if Gina Carano is officially declared the winner.
> 
> If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.mostvaluablepromotions.com/. 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 92%): Probability moved up 18.3pp in 24h with 1.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf438…9559` — 55,360.774 shares
- `0x1dd4…a4ad` — 49,995.32 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 19,559.147 shares
- `0x7a88…41cc` — 16,541.561 shares
- `0xf5e1…5ad0` — 12,003.181 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x7d92…8676` — 50,126.86 shares
- `0x661d…4dc6` — 24,477.784 shares
- `0x6f8b…01aa` — 17,366.54 shares
- `0x3740…c005` — 8,999.57 shares
- `0xed2b…3aba` — 7,014.569 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T05:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T04:44:07.000Z |
| Range | 56¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +44.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=mvp-fight-night-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-carano` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. " MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T04:46:37.656Z from https://orrery.me/markets/mvp-fight-night-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-carano.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*