# Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 74% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 01:20:00 GMT. 24h change +21.0pp, 24h volume $218.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-2pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-2pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T01:20:00.230Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **74¢** (74%) |
| Δ 1h | -9.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +21.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $218.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $218.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $34.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 5 at 7:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Pistons" if the Pistons win the game by 3 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 33,781.899 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 17,495.59 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 14,843.76 shares
- `0x1420…9daa` — 14,141 shares
- `0x3a51…b2b6` — 12,999.753 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3de4…b032` — 49,999.57 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 29,466.532 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 17,682.86 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 15,243.971 shares
- `0x412f…30fa` — 9,200.295 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 43 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T08:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T01:19:04.000Z |
| Range | 52¢ → 81¢ |
| Net change | +18.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-2pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Pistons (-2.5) — 74% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T01:20:00.230Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-2pt5.
```

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