# Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 50% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 20:28:35 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $299.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-3pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-3pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T20:28:35.753Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **50¢** (50%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $299.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $300.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.0M |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 5 at 7:00PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Pistons" if the Pistons win the game by 4 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cavaliers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 150,000 shares
- `0xe5ef…9e7a` — 44,049.388 shares
- `0xbddf…c684` — 33,631.741 shares
- `0xab1c…aadd` — 7,999.835 shares
- `0x67b6…00bc` — 6,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x72d8…5213` — 125,500.81 shares
- `0x163e…dc5b` — 40,000 shares
- `0x4852…67c4` — 24,143.296 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 20,253.718 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 14,999.548 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 41 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T05:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T20:28:06.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-3pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Pistons (-3.5) — 50% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T20:28:35.753Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-cle-det-2026-05-05-spread-home-3pt5.
```

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