# Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 52% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 13:03:54 GMT. 24h change +2.0pp, 24h volume $339.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-det-cle-2026-05-09-spread-home-4pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-det-cle-2026-05-09-spread-home-4pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T13:03:54.281Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **52¢** (52%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $339.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $344.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $697.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 9 at 3:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 5 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pistons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pistons".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 6h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa2cc…0cbc` — 229,959.05 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 12,220.396 shares
- `0x3a51…b2b6` — 8,000 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 6,871.059 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 4,671.59 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbddf…c684` — 152,908.987 shares
- `0xac25…433f` — 74,184.284 shares
- `0x84db…aeeb` — 16,436.86 shares
- `0xaa74…d98b` — 6,721 shares
- `0x8e8c…65dd` — 6,500 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 36 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T03:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T13:03:13.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-det-cle-2026-05-09-spread-home-4pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) — 52% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T13:03:54.281Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-det-cle-2026-05-09-spread-home-4pt5.
```

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