# Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 50% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 21:01:42 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $668.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-det-cle-2026-05-11-spread-home-3pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-det-cle-2026-05-11-spread-home-3pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T21:01:42.435Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **50¢** (50%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $668.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $672.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.0M |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 11 at 8:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 4 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pistons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pistons".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xce9d…f402` — 158,366 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 98,088.119 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 92,606 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 63,900.4 shares
- `0x418d…88a3` — 20,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc807…c12b` — 476,893.25 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 19,099.556 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 14,934.836 shares
- `0x1bc0…4429` — 12,110.34 shares
- `0x8e8c…65dd` — 6,500 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T23:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T21:00:08.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-det-cle-2026-05-11-spread-home-3pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) — 50% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T21:01:42.435Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-det-cle-2026-05-11-spread-home-3pt5.
```

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