# Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 41% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 00:38:18 GMT. 24h change -11.0pp, 24h volume $274.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-det-cle-2026-05-15-spread-home-3pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-det-cle-2026-05-15-spread-home-3pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T00:38:18.583Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **41¢** (41%) |
| Δ 1h | -19.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -11.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $274.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $286.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $47.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 15 at 7:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 4 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pistons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pistons".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 11.0pp in 24h with 5.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 81,089.857 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 21,215.569 shares
- `0x1467…4372` — 18,569 shares
- `0x3a51…b2b6` — 17,400 shares
- `0x1a35…2fad` — 16,500 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa8e0…ad50` — 80,000 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 68,675.395 shares
- `0x1136…0c2e` — 29,999.969 shares
- `0xacb2…b989` — 19,999.779 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 15,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T04:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T00:37:10.000Z |
| Range | 24¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -28.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-det-cle-2026-05-15-spread-home-3pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) — 41% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T00:38:18.583Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-det-cle-2026-05-15-spread-home-3pt5.
```

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