# Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 03:39:28 GMT. 24h change +45.5pp, 24h volume $745.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-14pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-14pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T03:39:28.240Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +55.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +45.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $745.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $760.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $994.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 5 at 12:00AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 15 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 79%): Probability moved up 45.5pp in 24h with 0.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 70%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x9495…9a27` — 163,038.295 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 149,999.987 shares
- `0x163e…dc5b` — 59,999.89 shares
- `0x5bec…b215` — 58,533.085 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 43,148.889 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 401,180.46 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 57,967.259 shares
- `0x2302…d6d2` — 42,801.1 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 15,904.839 shares
- `0xac25…433f` — 14,173.05 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 90 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T11:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T03:18:04.000Z |
| Range | 44¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +46.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-14pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-14.5) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T03:39:28.240Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-14pt5.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*