# Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 50% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 15:11:52 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $222.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-15pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-15pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T15:11:52.009Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **50¢** (50%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $222.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $224.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $376.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 5 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 16 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1117…3532` — 200,000 shares
- `0xe21e…f216` — 6,575.57 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 4,459.34 shares
- `0x7bec…07a8` — 2,000 shares
- `0x13af…b19f` — 1,330.36 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa710…23c4` — 100,000 shares
- `0x85f0…3f67` — 80,000 shares
- `0x32cc…68b3` — 33,333 shares
- `0x842a…7422` — 1,568.45 shares
- `0xa697…59d5` — 1,336.31 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 74 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T15:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T15:10:05.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-15pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-15.5) — 50% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T15:11:52.009Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-15pt5.
```

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