# Spread: Thunder (-16.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 03:39:15 GMT. 24h change +53.4pp, 24h volume $646.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-16pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-16pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T03:39:15.553Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +62.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +53.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $646.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $674.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $814.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 5 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 17 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 80%): Probability moved up 53.4pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4924…3782` — 289,642.47 shares
- `0x2302…d6d2` — 25,131.261 shares
- `0xa87d…e4bf` — 21,218.61 shares
- `0xd100…853d` — 16,304.326 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 10,869.565 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 192,789.301 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 143,127.321 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 13,150.939 shares
- `0x3a51…b2b6` — 12,999.988 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 12,499.989 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 86 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T15:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T03:17:03.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +52.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-16pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-16.5) — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T03:39:15.553Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05-spread-home-16pt5.
```

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