# Lakers vs. Thunder

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 11% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 08:47:57 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $110.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T08:47:57.850Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **11¢** (11%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $110.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $110.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $60.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 5 at 12:00AM ET:
> If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".
> If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 43h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x84cf…2f63` — 14,968.44 shares
- `0x90ba…63f3` — 6,199.927 shares
- `0xde9f…b8f7` — 4,874.629 shares
- `0x8c81…dcd3` — 4,338.189 shares
- `0xb088…ad37` — 2,727.273 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 19,999.79 shares
- `0xf396…ed0d` — 13,716.25 shares
- `0x709e…66f5` — 9,676.617 shares
- `0x6d3c…d294` — 8,076.41 shares
- `0xb946…2671` — 3,260.653 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 23 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T11:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T08:47:06.000Z |
| Range | 10¢ → 12¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Lakers vs. Thunder — 11% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T08:47:57.850Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-05.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*