# Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 49% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 23:33:49 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $529.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-07-spread-home-15pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-07-spread-home-15pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 8, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T23:33:49.925Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **49¢** (49%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $529.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $530.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $405.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 8, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 7 at 9:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 16 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc807…c12b` — 420,000 shares
- `0x966c…9b1a` — 20,648.233 shares
- `0x67b6…00bc` — 6,999.994 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 6,943.98 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 6,577.603 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 444,444.454 shares
- `0x1ba1…1ce4` — 17,256.581 shares
- `0x021c…232f` — 8,300 shares
- `0x1509…ca95` — 5,799.911 shares
- `0x7e56…7627` — 5,769.231 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T04:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T23:33:08.000Z |
| Range | 48¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-lal-okc-2026-05-07-spread-home-15pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-15.5) — 49% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T23:33:49.925Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-lal-okc-2026-05-07-spread-home-15pt5.
```

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