# Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 23:07:04 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $281.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-04-spread-home-9pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-min-sas-2026-05-04-spread-home-9pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T23:07:04.411Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $281.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $281.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $375.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 4 at 9:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 10 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1496…a429` — 61,812 shares
- `0x1e77…8c33` — 60,000 shares
- `0x27f7…44b0` — 47,623 shares
- `0xa2cc…0cbc` — 35,299.091 shares
- `0x5e6e…be00` — 20,573.83 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 199,999.996 shares
- `0xf070…ac55` — 18,451.83 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 14,999.991 shares
- `0x1bc8…2f68` — 11,695 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 6,685 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 5 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T20:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T23:05:05.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-min-sas-2026-05-04-spread-home-9pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-9.5) — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T23:07:04.411Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-04-spread-home-9pt5.
```

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