# Timberwolves vs. Spurs

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 14% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 01:58:36 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $145.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-min-sas-2026-05-04
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T01:58:36.446Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **14¢** (14%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $145.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $156.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $89.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 4 at 12:00AM ET:
> If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 45%): Expires in 26h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x84cf…2f63` — 32,614.33 shares
- `0xa87d…e4bf` — 16,286.39 shares
- `0xd1ed…d7cb` — 12,707 shares
- `0x90bf…99eb` — 6,636 shares
- `0x6814…a9e7` — 5,838.379 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xf396…ed0d` — 48,966.813 shares
- `0x6d3c…d294` — 17,711.659 shares
- `0xdaef…54e9` — 10,000 shares
- `0xd696…8a49` — 3,042.023 shares
- `0x10fb…c66c` — 3,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 39 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T11:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T01:58:04.000Z |
| Range | 12¢ → 15¢ |
| Net change | +2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-min-sas-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Timberwolves vs. Spurs — 14% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T01:58:36.446Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-04.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*