# Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 52% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 02:00:18 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $448.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-10pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-10pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T02:00:18.546Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **52¢** (52%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $448.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $448.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $63.0K |
| Spread | 3.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 6 at 9:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 11 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4924…3782` — 120,094.43 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 107,042.979 shares
- `0xe5ef…9e7a` — 25,753.61 shares
- `0x2302…d6d2` — 13,634.42 shares
- `0x5d1d…afd2` — 10,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 100,001 shares
- `0x1e77…8c33` — 62,000 shares
- `0x163e…dc5b` — 38,000 shares
- `0x84db…aeeb` — 25,768.8 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 20,383.065 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 12 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T15:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T01:59:03.000Z |
| Range | 46¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-10pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-10.5) — 52% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T02:00:18.546Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-10pt5.
```

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