# Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 13:09:07 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $345.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-9pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-9pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T13:09:07.243Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $345.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $347.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $409.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 6 at 9:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 10 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 12h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa2cc…0cbc` — 297,696.731 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 14,634 shares
- `0x42d3…1144` — 3,545.24 shares
- `0xa5b4…6f5b` — 3,358.44 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 3,297.91 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x85f0…3f67` — 139,999.634 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 104,730.585 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 30,000 shares
- `0x3dfb…abaf` — 20,000 shares
- `0xaca2…b9a1` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 33 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T06:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T13:08:07.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | +4.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-9pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-9.5) — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T13:09:07.243Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-06-spread-home-9pt5.
```

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