# Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 52% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 19:04:48 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $367.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-12-spread-home-9pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-min-sas-2026-05-12-spread-home-9pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T19:04:48.464Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **52¢** (52%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $367.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $371.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $129.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 12 at 12:00 AM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Spurs" if the Spurs win the game by 10 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Timberwolves".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5b4e…0232` — 47,794.21 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 34,999.92 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 26,448.708 shares
- `0x86e7…613e` — 7,999.949 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 3,974.027 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 31,056.828 shares
- `0x4852…67c4` — 24,475 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 14,461.19 shares
- `0x16bb…8492` — 7,743.63 shares
- `0x4df3…788f` — 6,753 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 41 |
| Window start | 2026-05-11T04:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T19:04:06.000Z |
| Range | 52¢ → 54¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-min-sas-2026-05-12-spread-home-9pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Spurs (-9.5) — 52% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T19:04:48.464Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-min-sas-2026-05-12-spread-home-9pt5.
```

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