# Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 50% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 18:49:39 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $17.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-nyk-cle-2026-05-23-spread-home-2pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-nyk-cle-2026-05-23-spread-home-2pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T18:49:39.875Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **50¢** (50%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $17.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $31.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $376.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 23 at 8:00 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Cavaliers" if the Cavaliers win the game by 3 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Knicks". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Knicks".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4924…3782` — 286,479.41 shares
- `0xa2cc…0cbc` — 249,999.921 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 199,187.16 shares
- `0x0549…c052` — 54,196.8 shares
- `0xa080…234f` — 20,298.38 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4bff…fc26` — 399,999.973 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 299,999.821 shares
- `0xbddf…c684` — 145,730.775 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 7,172.145 shares
- `0x58aa…a481` — 5,946.196 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 40 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T04:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T18:48:04.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 52¢ |
| Net change | +1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-nyk-cle-2026-05-23-spread-home-2pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) — 50% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T18:49:39.875Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-nyk-cle-2026-05-23-spread-home-2pt5.
```

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