# Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 19:03:54 GMT. 24h change +3.0pp, 24h volume $308.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-8pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-8pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T19:03:54.561Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $308.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $310.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $607.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 9 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 9 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc807…c12b` — 129,999.901 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 57,642.463 shares
- `0x9495…9a27` — 21,545.09 shares
- `0x3a51…b2b6` — 15,850.11 shares
- `0xd106…c79c` — 7,423.997 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe807…307c` — 60,296.953 shares
- `0x2114…84c5` — 20,408.163 shares
- `0x1711…9ba2` — 19,798 shares
- `0xf421…cff4` — 15,102.041 shares
- `0xd48a…6e90` — 14,635 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 39 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T06:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T19:02:06.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | +1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-8pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-8.5) — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T19:03:54.561Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-8pt5.
```

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