# Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 64% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 02:23:39 GMT. 24h change +17.0pp, 24h volume $802.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-9pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-9pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T02:23:39.901Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **64¢** (64%) |
| Δ 1h | +9.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +17.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $802.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $803.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $51.4K |
| Spread | 5.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.nba.com/

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for May 9 at 8:30 PM ET:
> 
> This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 10 or more points.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers".
> 
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 85%): Probability moved up 17.0pp in 24h with 15.6× liquidity turnover.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4924…3782` — 261,749.03 shares
- `0x6ac5…4b6e` — 119,716.375 shares
- `0xe5ef…9e7a` — 59,273.082 shares
- `0x462d…ce9b` — 18,398.85 shares
- `0xf284…b9f9` — 18,038.561 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 116,489.253 shares
- `0x8a6c…0b3f` — 98,039.216 shares
- `0x6f8b…01aa` — 53,493.2 shares
- `0x20d6…3856` — 40,027.05 shares
- `0x47a8…52f9` — 40,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 46 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T06:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T02:23:05.000Z |
| Range | 40¢ → 62¢ |
| Net change | +14.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-9pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Spread: Thunder (-9.5) — 64% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T02:23:39.901Z from https://orrery.me/markets/nba-okc-lal-2026-05-09-spread-away-9pt5.
```

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